Quick dive:
- Media agency Magna has again raised its U.S. ad spending forecast for the year, anticipating revenue growth of 11.4% to $377 billion, according to news shared with Marketing Dive. A previous forecast in June called for revenue to rise 10.7%.
- Improving macroeconomic conditions, strong appetite for digital and streaming, and cyclical events, including elections and the Summer Olympics, prompted the revision. Cyclical events accounted for $10 billion of additional spending in the revised forecast.
- Magna also expects non-cyclical ad spending to grow 8.9%, up from 8.2% in its previous forecast and marking one of the best performances for the category in 20 years. Non-cyclical ad revenue in the U.S. grew about 11% in the first half, in line with expectations.
Further information:
Forecasters entered 2024 with a rosy outlook on ad spending, which got a boost from an election cycle and events like the Olympics. Many media observers have have further revised their projections upwards during the year, including Magna, which had already revised his expectations in June AND March.
The trend speaks to a stronger appetite for branding than in 2023: Deep-pocketed retailers like Nike have used the Olympics to launch major advertising campaigns, as well as a steady influx of political dollars. Vice President Kamala Harris has has stepped up its advertising since entering the race at the beginning of this summer, with a strong focus on digital.
Excluding elections and the Olympics from the equation, growth in other categories still paints a stronger picture than many expected.
“Even without the incremental ad spend generated around cyclical events, 2024 already looks like a strong year for the U.S. advertising market, with nearly +9% growth,” said Vincent Létang, Magna’s executive vice president of global market intelligence, in a statement. “This is driven by strong brand demand in a stable economy and supply-side innovations, such as the rise of streaming and ad-funded retail media, that are providing marketers with greater scale and return on investment.”
Pure-play digital channels, including search, retail, social and short-form video, will reap the most benefits from the industry’s recovery. Non-cyclical ad sales in this space are expected to grow 13.6% to $264 billion, representing 72% of the total market. New AI tools from major platforms like Google and Meta have been credited by Magna with driving incremental brand spending in the pure-play category.
Ad revenue for traditional media owners will grow 5.1% to $11 billion, largely due to the influx of cyclical spending. Without cyclical spending, traditional media ad revenue would decline 1.5%. Excluding cyclical factors, traditional ad sales reached $25 billion in the second quarter, down 1.3% year over year.
Ad-supported streaming is the fastest-growing channel so far in 2024, according to Magna, with sales up nearly 20% in the first half. Streaming has seen an influx of ad-supported options, with Amazon Prime Video introducing ads in January and other platforms like Netflix securing larger upfront commitments as they improve their ad technology and sales sophistication.
Magna expects momentum to continue for the rest of the year, with non-cyclical growth rising 7.4% in the second half, up from the previously forecast 6.4%. Looking ahead to 2025, the ad market will remain strong, with non-cyclical ad spending growing 6.3% to $391 billion.
That said, total ad sales will only rise 3.9% from 2024, as odd-numbered years tend not to feature blockbuster events like the Olympics. Digital pure-play platforms will grow 9.3% to $289 billion, while traditional owners will decline 1.5% to $102 billion. Search, commerce and social will each gain 10%, accounting for two-thirds of all U.S. advertising.